covered at 1098.75 but will get short again

 

Update

Here is an hourly bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. After the bullish employment number came out the ES rallied to 1119 but then pulled a u-turn downward on high volume. This sort of action is generally bearish and portends a downside breakout from the recent trading range. We should see the market close near its lows today and continue downward next week. In the meantime the midpoint of today's range at 1107 should be resistance. Downside target is 1040-50.

I want to emphasize that a failure to break below this morning's 1095 low later today or Monday would be very bullish action and flip be back to the bull side.

 

short one unit at 1103.25

 

sold one unit at 1111.00

 

Long one unit at 1114.00

 

'Tis the season!

I started this blog in April of 2005, more than four and a half years ago. The markets have provided us with lots of excitement over these nearly five years!

My goal has been to give my readers a glimpse into the world of a trader with no BS, faked track records, or predictions of the past. I have tried to show you how to interpret market action simply with time-proven tools. I have been posting trades in real time in the E-mini S&P futures since October of 2007, the top of the 2002-07 bull market. The results have been very good as you can see from the track record information on the right hand side of this blog.

All of this has been delivered to you free of charge, with no ads to cluttering the blog. Nothing like this is available anywhere else on the web. To access any one else's trades generally costs hundreds or even thousands dollars per year. Their results are not as good as mine which you get free of charge !

Everyone likes to feel appreciated and I am no exception. I would like to ask each of you to show your appreciation for my work by making a donation to this blog to support my efforts(not tax free! sorry !!). You can do so via PayPal by clicking on the PayPal donation link on the right hand side of my blog. If you feel more comfortable sending me a check you can get my mailing address by e-mailing me at carlfutia99@gmail.com and asking for it.

Give what you can and what you think my work has been worth to you. Donate to help keep this blog up and running!!

Thank you for all of your support!

 

Guesstimates on December 4, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market broke briefly below the 1100 level late yesterday, but after this morning's employment news it retraced all of that break and more. I interpret this as a bullish rejection of prices below the 1100 level. If I am correct about this the market has resumed its rally to 1130-40. Support stands at 1106. I estimate today's day session range will be 1106-1120.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

update

The e-minis have traded for three consecutive day sessions in a narrow, ten point range right at the top of an 9 month rally. Tomorrow the employment numbers will be released at 8:30 am.

I will tolerate a break to 1100 or so, but anything worse than that will mean that the market is probably headed down to 1040-1050. As long as 1100 holds I will continue to play for a move to 1130-40.

 

sold long unit at 1111.00

 

Long one unit at 1110.00

 

Guesstimates on December 3, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1108-1122. I think the market is headed for the 1130-40 range.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

Still up

Here is an hourly chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. The trend is still upward as indicated by the rising trend in the market's trading ranges (blue ovals). This morning the market tried to break out over the last top at 1111.75 but couldn't hold its gains. The selling that materialized subsequently doesn't look terribly aggressive to me. The reaction so far has not even matched the size of the previous reaction (purple rectangles).

I think the market will continue to trade in its current range (second blue oval) for the rest of the day and then make a second upside break out attempt tomorrow.

 

Guesstimates on December 2, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1102-1116. I think the market is headed for the 1130-40 range.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

sold one unit at 1110.75

 

Update

Here is a daily chart of 24 hour e-mini trading. My current upside target is the green oval which lies at the confluence of two trend lines and the midpoint of the 2008-09 bear market at 1126. I think the October top at 1099 (red dash line) will provide support for the subsequent reaction. After that reaction is complete I expect the market to resume its march to 1170 and above.

 

A few more bricks for the Wall Of Worry

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

 

Long one unit at 1105.25

 

Guesstimates on December 1, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1098-1112. I think the market is headed for the 1130-40 range.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: Sentiment is very bullish. Even so I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

 

Sold one unit at 1089.00

 

update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. Last Thursday the market broke below its previous low at 1082.50 on the Dubai World default news. But it put in only one brief trading range below there (first blue oval). That downside breakout now looks like a false alarm to me because two subsequent trading ranges have formed completely above the 1082.50 level.

I conclude that the market is headed up from here. The 1130-40 range should be reached by mid-December.

PS I want to bring this to your attention!

 

Long one unit at 1089.00

 

Guesstimates on November 30, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: I think Friday's 1067 low will hold. In fact I do not expect to see the e-minis trade below 1082. Today's range estimate is 1085-1100. I think the market is headed for the 1130-40 range.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I have been leaning on resistance near 150 but New York closed above 151.00 on Wednesday so I now think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50. Dollar-Yen: I now thing the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: Sentiment is very bullish. But I think this morning's 1130 low will hold and that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.