Friday, January 23, 2015

Guesstimates on January 23, 2015



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2040-2062. I think the market has started a move which will carry to 2200 or so.
QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.70% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
February Gold:  Resistance at 1275 has been broken. Gold is headed up to 1350. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is now at 18.40.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 98.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Guesstimates on January 22, 2015



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2018-2040. I think the market has started a move which will carry to new bull market highs.
QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.70% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
February Gold:  Resistance at 1275 has been broken. Gold is headed up to 1350. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is now at 18.40.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 98.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Attention Traders

As you know I post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 84% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 208% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

Euro doings





Before tomorrow's open the European Central Bank will announce the results of its latest policy meeting. For the past several months the ECB's president, Mario Draghi, has undertaken quite a bit of verbal, quantitative easing. The ECB will have to back these promises up by announcing a serious QE program tomorrow. Evidently the markets think it will as you can see from the bottom pair of charts.

The bottom chart is a monthly chart of the Euro/Dollar currency pair. The euro has dropped steeply for the past 8 months in anticipation of an ECB quantitative easing program. The drop has brought the market to its lowest point in more than 10 years. I think this euro bear market will continue and that we will see the euro below 1.00. If the ECB is really serious about its QE program a drop in the euro to its 2000 low around 0.82 would not surprise me.

Just above the euro chart is a daily chart of the Stoxx 600 European stock market index. This index has recently hit new bull market highs, again in anticipation of the ECB's QE program.

Today the Wall Street Journal leaked the outlines of the QE program upon which the ECB will vote tomorrow. It currently calls for the purchase of 50 billion euros worth of securities per month for at least a year. Tomorrow the markets will respond to any change in this "whisper" number. They will be especially interested to see if this is a commitment by the ECB to pursue its QE program until its inflation target is met no matter how long it takes. Such an open-ended commitment would be very bullish indeed.

The top three charts are my US stock market trend indicators. You can see that both the Dow and the S&P are in the region between their 50 day (green) and 200 day (red) moving averages.In a bull market such a configuration generally is followed by a swing up to new highs. This is what I think will happen now. The only possible problem would be a surprise departure tomorrow by the ECB from the QE program leaked to the markets today.

Guesstimates on January 21, 2015



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2000-2017. I think the market has started a move which will carry to new bull market highs.
QQQ: Support is at 99.00. The next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the current flight to quality has dropped the note yield to 1.70% so far. I think the yield will not go below the historical low at 1.39% and estimate that the market will hold support at 1.60%.
Euro-US Dollar: The Swiss news dropped the Euro below 1.16 but I think that will be it on the downside for a while. Longer term I expect the Euro to drop below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
February Gold:  Resistance at 1275 has been broken. Gold is headed up to 1350. I remain long term bearish with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is now at 18.40.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 98.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.