Friday, August 22, 2014

Guesstimates on August 22, 2014



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1978-90. I think this market is in the early stages of a move up to 2080.
QQQ: Upside target is 103.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro has dropped below 1.33 and next support is at 131.25.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
October Crude:  Crude is headed for 90.
December Gold:  Gold is hovering at 1285 support but I think this support will fail and then then gold will head below 1100.
September Silver: Silver is headed down once more. My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple is flirting with its historical high of 100.70. I think AAPL is headed for 108.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Guesstimates on August 21, 2014



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1976-88. I think this market is in the early stages of  a move up to 2080.
QQQ: Upside target is 103.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro has dropped below 1.33 and next support is at 131.25.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
October Crude:  Crude is headed for 90.
December Gold:  Gold is hovering at 1285 support but I think this support will fail and then then gold will head below 1100.
September Silver: Silver is headed down once more. My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple is flirting with its historical high of 100.70. I think AAPL is headed for 108.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Attention Traders

As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades on October 14 they have generated  72 points profit on a one contract basis. This is a return of 36% on a 10k trading account to margin a single contract (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,500). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 142% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

If you want to see my trades in real time with almost no delay you can sign up for my trading seminar at  CarlFutiaRealTime.   Not only will you get my private, real time Twitter feed but I will explain my trades and my way of thinking about the markets every day in posts I make before the open and near the close. When market conditions warrant I also provide one or two line interim updates during the trading session on my market views.

I think the most important skill any trader can have is the ability to interpret the market's language. Every price fluctuation in the E-minis (or any market for that matter) provides the careful observer with clues about the market's direction within the day and day-to -day and week-to- week.  Do you know how to find these clues and interpret them? This is the skill I teach in my seminar. You can get all this for only $25 for the first four weeks.

So far I have made more than 3000 posts and answered more than 6000 questions about my methods and ideas. Every day I explain my thinking and how I reach my conclusions about the E-mini's various trends. I explain why I make the trades you see on the Twitter feed. You can learn these skills too by reading my posts, asking questions in the seminar comments section, and watching me trade. Sign up now and start improving your trading skills today!!

Traders' Testimonials 

(just the last seven  - for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

headed higher

The top three charts of my favorite trend indicators for the US stock market are all bullish, with the Dow finally closing above its 50 day moving average yesterday.

The chart which is second from the bottom shows the 10 day moving average of the number of advancing issues on the New York Stock Exchange. As you can see this indicator has just reached its highest level since mid-February, This identifies the straight-up move from the August 8 low point as a likely "kick-off" for a much longer swing. If the S&P rallies from its August 8 low as much as it rallied from its April 14 low to its July 24 top this average will reach 2085 or so.

The third chart from the bottom shows the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio. At the August low this indicator had reached its highest level (i.e. showed the most bearish sentiment level) in nearly a year. As you can see it has come down only partway from that high and before this up swing terminates I think this indicator will be hovering near its late June low.

As always there is a fly in this bullish ointment. The bottom chart shows the Stoxx index of widely held European stocks. It peaked in June, a month before the US averages, and subsequently dropped below its 200 day moving average (red line). Its 50 day moving average has turned downward and the Stoxx index is rallying toward this 50 day average.

This is a potentially very bearish situation. Should this rally halt near or a bit above the declining 50 day average I think the Stoxx index will drop substantially below its 200 day moving average and thus announce a new bear market in European stocks. This in turn would exert an irresistible downward pull on the US averages. So I will be watching the US market carefully when the Stoxx gets close to its 50 day average for a potential top in the US.

During the past 4 years the European Central Bank has seriously  mucked up European monetary policy and Europe is now headed for deflation. Once things get bad enough to discredit the Bundesbank's view of monetary policy (which would require a big drop in European stock prices) the ECB will be able to change course and get serious about its promised quantitative easing policies. Such a change would produce a big rally in world stock markets and a big drop in the Euro. But this change still lies months in the future. In the meantime I have a very strong suspicion that European stock markets are sliding into a bear market.

Guesstimates on August 20, 2014



September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1970-80. I think this market is headed for new bull market highs.
QQQ: Upside target is 103.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro has dropped below 1.33 and next support is at 131.25.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
October Crude:  Crude is headed for 90.
December Gold:  Gold is hovering at 1285 support but I think this support will fail and then then gold will head below 1100.
September Silver: Silver is headed down once more. My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple is flirting with its historical high of 100.70. I think AAPL is headed for 108.