Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Guesstimates on February 9, 2016



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1807-40. I think the 1804 low will hold for at least another week or two. Resistance above the market is at 1951. Ultimately the ES is likely to drop into the 1700-50 zone.
QQQ:  Support in the Q’s is 94-95 and another rally to 104 or so is likely.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market is headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support at 116 has failed. It looks like a new bear market has started which has bearish implications for world and for Japanese stock markets. Next downside target is 108.
March Crude: A drop to 24 or so is likely.
April Gold:  The move above 1175 resistance leads me to believe that a new bull market has begun in gold. Next upside target is 1260.
March Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  APPL has dropped below 100 so 90 is the likely next stop.
Facebook: Resistance is now 120. Support is 95.
Twitter: Twitter has dropped below 19 and is probably headed for 10.
Alibaba: Resistance is at 75 and next downside target is 57.
Visa: Support is at 70.

Monday, February 08, 2016

Attention Traders

So far in 2016 the day trades I have posted in real time on my S&P e-mini trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  netted a profit of 197%. (calculated using 10k equity per contract). In 2015 the profit for the entire year was 169%. In 2011, 2012, 2103, and 2014 the trades posted to the seminar blog yielded profits of 81%, 21%, 29% and 59% respectively.

This is strong evidence that the methods I teach in my seminar are an effective way for anticipating the market's direction. I focus on identifying support and resistance levels, especially those associated with my theory of repetition. I think these ideas will open you eyes to new ways of taking advantage of market swings. 

You can learn these methods and follow my real time trade tweets for less than $25 per month.  

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

stock market update


Since the January 20 low the US stock market averages have swung up and down in a fairly wide range, But all of this activity has occurred at levels well below the declining 200 day moving averages (red lines) you see in the top three charts. All three of these trend indicators are in definite bearish configurations.

Right now I think that the February 1 highs either ended or are close to the end of the move up from the January 20 low points. My best guess is that the averages will fluctuated between their January 20 lows and February 1 highs for a couple of more weeks before dropping below the January 20 low points.

Traders sentiment as reflected in the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call numbers is in the middle of its recent range. My guess is that it will move lower before another extended drop begins.

The bottom chart shows my estimated downside targets in the S&P 500 index. The closest one is at 1730, the confluence of the bull market trendline and the .382 retracement back to the year 2011 low point of 1075.

My worst case scenario is a 25% drop to support in the general vicinity of the year 2000 and year 2007 bull market tops at 1554 and 1576 respectively. The 1600 level is also the halfway retracement back to the 1075 low of 2011. The 1573 level is the .382 retracement of the entire 2009-2015 bull market in the S&P 500.

I think the Fed and other central banks are growing increasingly concerned about deflationary world financial conditions. I doubt that the Fed will increase rates at all in 2016. In fact I suspect that an overt move towards monetary ease will turn out to be the Fed's next step. Unfortunately it will probably take more bearish action in the US stock market to trigger this policy change.

Guesstimates on February 8, 2016



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1836-76. I think the 1804 low will hold for at least another week or two. Resistance above the market is at 1951. Ultimately the ES is likely to drop into the 1700-50 zone.
QQQ:  Support in the Q’s is 94-95 and another rally to 104 or so is likely.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market is headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude: A drop to 24 or so is likely.
April Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1175. Major support is still at 1030 but the low at 1044 may have been close enough to end the bear market.
March Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  APPL has dropped below 100 so 90 is the likely next stop.
Facebook: Resistance is now 120. Support is 95.
Twitter: Twitter has dropped below 19 and is probably headed for 10.
Alibaba: Resistance is at 75 and next downside target is 57.
Visa: Support is at 70.

Friday, February 05, 2016

Guesstimates on February 5, 2016



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1893-1923. I think the 1804 low will hold for at least a couple of weeks. Resistance above the market is at 1951. Ultimately the ES is likely to drop into the 1700-50 zone.
QQQ:  The Q’s have reached 103-04 but an extension upward to 106 or so is now likely.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The market is headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
March Crude: A drop to 24 or so is likely.
April Gold:  Resistance above the market is at 1175. Major support is still at 1030 but the low at 1044 may have been close enough to end the bear market.
March Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over. If so support is at 13.50.
Google: Upside target is now 860.
Apple:  APPL has dropped below 100 so 90 is the likely next stop.
Facebook: Resistance is now 120. Support is 95.
Twitter: Twitter has dropped below 19 and is probably headed for 10.
Alibaba: Resistance is at 75 and next downside target is 57.
Visa: Support is at 70.