Friday, December 19, 2014

Guesstimates on December 19, 2014



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2051-71. The made a new bull market high overnight. I think it is headed for 2180-2220.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached 122. Support is now at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240. Once crude oil starts to rally I expect gold to collapse.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL has decisively broken support at 520 and now is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Guesstimates on December 18, 2014



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2020-2042. The drop from the December top ended on Tuesday and I expect to see the ES trade well above 2100 during the coming weeks.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached 122. Support is now at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
February Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240. Once crude oil starts to rally I expect gold to collapse.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL has decisively broken support at 520 and now is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Attention Traders

As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar generated a profit of 167% trading one contract per 10k of equity.

Here are the last seven comments I have received about seminar members experiences.

(for more follow this link)

Curt said .....

I just want to thank you for your service. Your work is the foundation of my trading technique. I am not sure what I would do without you. I suppose I should study all your information so I may be able to survive if you ever stop. Please please don’t stop for at least two years, by then, I should be safe.

AP said ...

Just wanted to thank you for sharing with us your very methodical and systematic approach to market.

I have given up every prior technique I used to use to analyze markets before joining your seminar. Now I just use the principles you teach here … such as repetition rallies/breaks, rejecting lows or highs of ranges and numerous others that you share day-in and day-out.

I have started keeping a diary of such wisdoms you share and it has helped me trade not one but multiple securities profitably.

So again, Thank you.

dover said...

Carl, I wish that everything I bought equaled the value of your Real Time E-mini Trading Seminar and Blog.

moar said...
Been subscribing for half a year and have a much better grasp on the market now and can “control” my trading in a whole new way. I really value this seminar. So, thank you Carl, i wish you all the best!

average said ...
Thank you. Your blog is the best investment I’ve made.

adam said...

carl – congratulations on a terrific year. the blog offers wonderful insight, and
personally i find that the more i follow you, the more i can think on my own
within your basic parameters and frame of reference. This truly is the
greatest gift or a achievement a teacher can have, so please gain satisfaction
in knowing that you are contributing greatly to the body of knowledge and
method in your blogosphere.

flag said...

Your Real Time is the Real Deal…….. The Best financial site and most visited of all my favorites.  Informative, actionable, reasoned, consistant and unique.
 

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

update


At the top of this post are three daily charts of my main trend indicators. You can see that all three have dropped into the region between the 50 day moving average (green line) and the 200 day moving average (red line). This region is generally where you will find lows of corrections within an ongoing bull market.

Since I still don't see any sign that the bull market in US stocks which began nearly 6 years ago is over I think that the drop from the December 5 top is much closer to its end than to its beginning.

The bottom three charts suggest that the low of the correction has either been seen or will develop within the next 2 or three days.

The fourth chart down shows the VIX, a measure of expected market volatility. As a rule low points are associated with high points in the VIX. If you look closely at this chart you will see that the today the VIX has reached the a high above all levels seen in more than two years with with the exception of the October 2014 high. As soon as the VIX starts dropping below its daily bar lows I think the drop in the averages will be over.

The second chart up from the bottom shows the 10 day moving average of the number of advancing issues on the New York Stock exchange. You can see that this oscillator has now dropped to levels associated with low points in the averages during the past year.

The bottom chart shows the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio. High levels in this indicator show high levels of bearish sentiment among options traders and this is generally a bullish sign. Currently this indicator is at a level similar to those associated with low points in the averaged during the past two years.

With this evidence in mind I conclude that the drop from the December 5 top is over or nearly so. The next important swing will be upward and I expect it to carry the averages to new bull market highs.


Guesstimates on December 17, 2014



March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1963-93. I see no sign that the bull market has ended and in any case expect the ES to hold above its 200 day moving average, currently at 1939.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached 122. Support is now at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
January Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240. Once crude oil starts to rally I expect gold to collapse.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL has decisively broken support at 520 and now is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.