Friday, April 07, 2006

Guesstimates on April 7 , 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: The market is headed up to 1328 but only a modest reaction of 6-8 points is likely from there. Stronger resistance is at 1335. Support today is at 1315.    

June Bonds: The market dropped to 108-09 on the employment news an now should rally to 109-08 or so. After that a break below  108-00 is likely.  

June 10 Year Notes: Will probably rally to 106-22 before the drop below 106 resumes.  

US Dollar -Euro: The first phase of a three phase reaction from yesterday’s high at 123.31 looks like it is complete. Resistance today is at 122.50. I expect the third phase to carry down to 121.00. After that a move to 125.00 is likely.

May Crude: The market broke above 66.95 resistance decisively yesterday so I think it will rally to 68.80 before turning lower. The next significant move will be downward to 56.80-57.20. I think that over the next few months the market will drop to 52.00 or lower.

June Gold: Gold has nearly reached my 605 target. The next big move will be downward.  

May Silver: The market has exceeded my upside target at 1205 by 10 cents or so but I still think the next big move will be downward.

Google: I am convinced that GOOG is on its way to 440 although a move to 495 no longer seems likely. Support is at 398.  

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