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Just covered my earlier short from 1194 at 1188. Don't like the repeated bounces from the 1185 area. Will look for shorting opportunities at higher levels
So far we've had the narrowest daytime range since early Sept 3rd. It'll be interesting to see if we hold today's range into the close. That would be something to frustrate both bulls and bears!
Also, given the narrow range I wonder if we run stops above 1195 and then below 1182.
why don't you just wait for a confirmed signal? What is the rush in trying to be a hero? So what if you miss the first 10-20 points? Better than losing it as u just have.Ricotoronto
Does any else see the lower lows and lower highs here (15 min chart)?This market is going to fall apart today.Waiting for a break above 10,900 to go long at on the DOW mini's
The error you are making is trading during the testimony of Paulsen and Bernanke. There will be nothing but a buzz-saw until it is complete.Otherwise trade it short term, don't position trade it (yet).DE
Carl:The market might drop a bit from here, but this is important support around 1186 or so. A rally will start from these levels, but we still might make a quick trip to 1175-ish RicoToronto
Seems like all the short-term back and forth is wedging into the low.
It's been a while since I've seen the 1min chart guys chop themselves up like this!
Market doesn't know what to do...looks like the dog chasing its tail. I just read where Bernanke will speak to the house at 2:30. That should give even further volatility. Kind regards, Janet
My strategy for the rest of today is to wait for stops to be run above 1195 and then go short on waning volume and loss of momentum. Any Strength above 1202 and all bets are off while I re-evaluate.
So, so tempting to sell on this 'rally' to 1194, but I know I'll have a change to sell at higher levels. Must resist pressing sell button....must resist...
have just been looking at markit.com and the mark-to-market prices of various mortgage bond tranches, as well as CDS prices (debt swaps). mortgage bonds are being marked higher. swaps are falling (spreads narrowing, which means less risk...and is bullish for the economy/market). With mortgage bonds rising in price, and the very strong positive correlation between mortgage bond prices and stocks that persisted into early August, it is becoming clear that the underlying problem assets are projecting for higher stock price. The stock market has remained insensitive to the improvements in these distresed-asset prices...but that insensitivity should give way to greater sensitivity pretty darn soon. Also TIPS markets are pricing in surging Real Yields and still-downtrending inflation expectations...which is also a scenario that is bullish for stocks. Stocks are currently about the only asset class NOT pricing in improvment. Stock prices are very likely to appreciate sharply and soon.
Sold at 1198. Will sell more a tad higher.
Hesitent in going back down so covered half of short position at 1195. Stop on balance at 1201
A sustained move below 1190 opens door for a test of morning lows. If they break then I think we'll see 1164 this afternoonIt this all plays out and we DONT get a bounce then tomorrow is gonna be ugly.Keeping the balance of my short from 1198 for now.
Sorry for the piece-meal posting. I should add that a move above 1201 would not only make me cover my short but would also encourage a small long position with a wide stop.
I now have a buy stop and reverse order in at 1199.5 but the net long will only be a 25% position with a wide stop.okay. I've monopolized the comments section on Carl's blog. I'll shut up for the rest of the day.
Thanks for continuing to post the day trades, Carl. Your postings show your level of comfort with yourself, and with your trading method. It's educational to watch you.Intra-day Stochastics (5-minute or 15-minute chart) have been helpful to me in timing intra-day trades.Adam Oliensis - very helpful information. I really like it when this comments section becomes so informative.
Carl is the best!!... Best contrarian indicator. Made some money fading his EVERY move.
Dear 3:41pmYours is the most childish comment ever posted on this blog. No doubt you faded me last Thursday when I bought 1138's. Guess you lost 100 points on that fade! Oh wait, you don't really trade do you?.
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