Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Guesstimates on November 30, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1218-1243. The market rallied well above 1208-1218 resistance on news of central bank efforts to ease credit conditions. If the ES closes above 1209 on Friday I will have to move back to the bullish side of the market.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Guesstimates on November 29, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1191-1206. There is strong resistance above the market in the 1208-1218 zone. The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Guesstimates on November 28, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1170-1192. The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Guesstimates on November 25, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1148-1160. The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Guesstimates on November 23, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1164-1181. It is very likely that the ES will close below 1208 Friday. This means that the weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support at 1.3500 has been broken. 1.3200 is now the downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Guesstimates on November 22, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1172-1190. I still think there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months. However, for this view to remain viable the market would have to close this Friday above 1208. Failing this 1130 would become the downside target.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Guesstimates on November 21, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1190-1212. I still think there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months. However, for this view to remain viable the market would have to close this Friday above 1208. Failing this 1130 would become the downside target.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, November 18, 2011

still headed higher


Here is a 10 point box, one box reversal point and figure chart of the cash S&P 500. The thing that stands out most on this chart is that the recent three week trading range between 1210 and 1290 stands almost completely above the longer and wider August-October trading range. I interpret this to mean that the market is accepting prices at or above the breakout level as fair value. This in turn says that the move to 1290 in late October was a genuine breakout and should be followed by upside continuation once the current consolidation phase is complete.

The sovereign debt fiasco in Europe has been blowing the market hither and yon for four months now. Despite an avalanche of bad news and dire predictions the S&P is still trading almost exactly in the middle of its 2011 range. This I think is bullish behavior in the face of bad news. Of course, the news can always get worse as we discovered in 2008, but generally I find that it is unwise to fight the market's last war.

Note that the August-October trading range ended with a shakeout which too the S&P about 10 points below the low of the trading range and this shakeout was followed by a fast rally. I think something similar is going to happen now.

The only thing which would cause be to be wary and possibly abandon my bullish prognosis would be a close today (Friday) below 1208.50, the November 1 low. Such a close would be below the lows of the preceding two weeks and suggest at least a further drop to 1140 or so.

Guesstimates on November 18, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1216-36. I think there is a good chance that yesterday's 1206.50 low will hold and that the market is on its way above 1300. The only thing that would cast doubt on my bullish scenario would be a close today below 1208.50. There has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Guesstimates on November 17, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1203-1233. I think the market will take a peek below its November 1 low at 1208.50 and then begin a move to 1300 and higher. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Guesstimates on November 16, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1225-50. I now think that the market will hold above last week's low at 1218 and soon will begin a move above the 1300 level, thus resolving the trading range of the past two weeks with an upside breakout. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Guesstimates on November 15, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1230-50. I now think that the market will hold above last week's low at 1218 and soon will begin a move above the 1300 level, thus resolving the trading range of the past two weeks with an upside breakout. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Guesstimates on November 14, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1270. I now think that the market will hold above last week's low at 1218 and soon will begin a move above the 1300 level, thus resolving the trading range of the past two weeks with an upside breakout. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Guesstimates on November 11, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1236-1253. The down swing from the 1275 high is likely to end near 1195. I think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. The next swing up will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

be content with what is possible


This post is about the frustrations that market fluctuations generate for a trader and how to deal with them. My message is a simple one: be content with what is possible.
I have been in this business full time for nearly 30 years now. I have known many traders. The majority of them were only in the business a relatively brief time. Most of these left because they lost money but some left because, even though they were making money trading, they couldn't stand the constant frustration traders experience.
Markets move up and down, sometimes quite violently. People tend to evaluate their trading performance not simply in terms of profit and loss but also in terms of how much money they could have made had they been able to catch a substantial part of most of the market's up and down swings. In fact, I have known profitable traders who were constantly frustrated and unhappy because they felt that they had left so much money on the table.
Put simply, this is crazy behavior. What basis do you have for thinking you can catch a substantial part of the market's many swings? Sure, in hindsight everything is obvious and we can see how we might have become gazillionaires.
But we cannot trade the past. We can only make profits betting on the future. And people who bet on future price fluctuations must necessarily rely on very, very cloudy crystal balls. So as a practical matter you should count yourself fortunate indeed if you consistently capture a small part of any given market swing.
What does this mean for you? It means that you should be focused on one thing and one thing only when evaluating your trading record. Have you been making consistent profits or not? Forget about how much you might have made - those sort of calculations are not in the realm of what's possible. What's possible is steady, month-by-month, quarter-by quarter profitability. Some people can achieve higher rates of return on their capital than others, but so what? Don't worry about what other people do. Focus only on what you can do based on your market knowledge and trading skills.
I had a friend who was a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and later a member of the Singapore exchange. He had a profit goal he aimed for each year. When he reached it he stopped trading for the rest of the year. It didn't matter whether it took him two months or six months or eleven months to reach his goal. When he reached it he stopped.
For him trading was just a way to make a good living, not a test of his value as a person or an affirmation that he was smarter than everyone else. This is an example of sane behavior in a business where various forms of insanity are the rule, not the exception.

Guesstimates on November 10, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1219-1245. The down swing from the 1275 high is likely to end near 1195. I think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing that I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Guesstimates on November 9, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1225-50. I think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Guesstimates on November 8, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1259-79. I still think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, November 07, 2011

Guesstimates on November 7, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1230-50. I still think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, November 04, 2011

Guesstimates on November 4, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1243-1263. I still think that last week's up move was a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes today below 1216 I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, November 03, 2011

headed higher after holding support

Here is a daily chart of the December e-minis going back to late June. Last week I think the market staged a genuine upside breakout from its August-October trading range. The breakout levels are depicted by green dash lines on the chart. You can see that Tuesday's break dropped the ES right into that support zone but no further.

This looks like a successful test of the breakout level. If so the next leg up should eventually equal the size of the first leg which was 221 points (blue dash rectangles). This gives an upside target of 1429 (blue arrow).

Looking back at the past three months I think the most striking fact is that the market only went sideways from August to October despite repeated bouts of bad news about the evolving European debt crisis. This is bullish behavior, at least in retrospect. It looks like the market is telling us that the Europeans will successfully "muddle through" the current crisis without crashing the EU monetary and banking system, at least not this time around.

Guesstimates on November 3, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1233-1253. I still think that last week's up move was a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes this Friday below 1216 I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.