Monday, April 30, 2012

Guesstimates on April 30, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1388-1398. The ES has staged an upside breakout from its 1352-1390 trading range. I think this means that the market is headed for 1475 and higher over the coming weeks
QQQ:  Upside target is now 72.50.          
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has been trading around the 81.00 support level for two weeks. The last two days price action suggest that that support has been broken. But the midpoint of the February-March rally is 80.10, just about where the market is now. A New York close below 80.00 would make me abandon my bullish view on the yen.
June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: Since the ES appear to have established its reaction low I now think that AAPL will hold its 555 low. After a period of sideways action Apple should then  move above the 700 level. 

Friday, April 27, 2012

Guesstimates on April 27, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1390-1403. The ES staged an upside breakout yesterday from its 1352-1390 trading range. I think this means that the market is headed for 1475 and higher over the coming weeks
QQQ:  Upside target is now 72.50.          
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00
June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: Since the ES appear to have established its reaction low I now think that AAPL will hold its 555 low. After a period of sideways action I think Apple will move above the 700 level. 

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Guesstimates on April 26, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1373-1385. The ES took a peek above its 1390 trading range high in Europe this morning and now I think it has started a move down into the1320-30 range. But if it spends most of a day trading above 1390 I will conclude that the correction which began from 1419.75 ended at 1352.50.  The ES would then be headed for new bull market highs.  
QQQ:  Downside target is 63.50.         
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00
June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: I still think there is a good chance that the low at 555 will be broken before we see new bull market highs above 644. But in either event I think that AAPL will move above the 700 level before its bull market is complete.  

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

three peaks and a domed house

Here is a daily chart of the Dow going back to the beginning of 2011. Above it is a schematic of George Linday's three peaks and a domed house formation. During the past two years we have seen two examples of this chart pattern.

The first one had its three peaks (points 3, 5, 7) during 2009-10, its point 10 at the July 2010 low, and point 23 at the May 2011 top. The normal downside expectation after the completion of a 3pdh is a drop to the starting point of the whole formation which is generally below point 10. The October 2011 low in the Dow did not meet this downside expectation. However it is worth pointing out that similar 3pdh formations developed in the German DAX index, the French CAC, and the British FTSE. All three eventually dropped to or below their corresponding point 10's which were at the July 2010 lows.

A second 3pdh formation began while the first was still in progress. It is illustrated in the Dow chart above which has its highs and lows numbered to correspond with the schematic above it. In this formation point 10 is the October 2011 low point. Lindsay observed that point one of points 21,23, 25 or even 27 generally occurs about 7 months and 10 days after point 14. This time projection lands in early July 2012. Sometimes the time count has to be made from point 10. That count ends in mid-May. So there is about a 7 week interval beginning in mid-May during which we should see the development of several of the highs associated with the peak of the domed house.

My own guess right now is that points 23 still lies ahead of us and will develop above the March top. But one could argue that  that top was indeed point 23 (red lettering). I prefer my own interpretation for two reasons.

First at the March 2012 top there were no divergences between the Dow and other market sectors of any consequence. Nor were there any divergences between the Dow and the European averages cited above. A move to new highs for the Dow at this juncture may well produce such divergences.

Second, as I explained above, the time projections for the peak(s) of the domed house suggest that these tops will develop during the May-July period.

While it never pays to be dogmatic about these things the fact that I see no significant underlying technical weakness in the US market leads me to believe that another rally to new highs will develop before any substantial correction begins which has any chance of revisiting the 2011 low points.

Added Later on 4/25/12: I forgot to mention that if you look carefully at the Dow chart above you will see a minor version of a 3pdh with the three peaks during March of 2012 and point 10 either at the early April low or yet to be made. In either case this minor formation forecasts a new high in the Dow above the March top. Lindsay observed that these minor formations develop frequently and have forecasting value.

Guesstimates on April 25, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1374-1388. The ES is on its way to the trading range high at 1390. From there I think the market will head down to its target zone of 1320-30. But if it spends most of a day trading above 1390 I will conclude that the correction which began from 1419.75 ended at 1352.50.  The ES would then be headed for new bull market highs. 
QQQ:  Downside target is 63.50.         
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00
June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: AAPL rallied sharply on earnings news after yesterday's close and is now trading near 616. I still think there is a good chance that yesterday's low at 555 will be broken before we see new bull market highs above 644. But in either event I think that AAPL will move above the 700 level before its bull market is complete.  

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Guesstimates on April 24, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate  is 1350-1365. As long as the ES stays below the 1371 midpoint of its trading range I will expect the market to drop into the 1320-30 zone before a move to new bull market highs begins.
QQQ:  Downside target is 63.50.         
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00
June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: A has broken 575 support but the drop from 644 will probably  end near 520.  I don't think the AAPL bull market is over and expect to see AAPL move above 644 once this reaction is complete.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Guesstimates on April 23, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate  is 1350-1364. The ES has spent the European session this morning entirely below 1370 so I now think the market is headed for the 1320-1330 range.  Once a low is established there the ES should rally well above it 1419.75 high.
QQQ:  Downside target is 63.50.         
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00
June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: A has broken 575 support and is now headed for 550. I don't think the AAPL bull market is over and expect to see AAPL move above 644 once this reaction is complete.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Guesstimates on April 20, 2012


June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate  is 1373-1383. As long as the ES doesn't spend much time below 1370 I will stick with my view that 1352.50 ended the drop from 1419.75. New bull market highs are ahead.
QQQ:  Next upside target is 70.00.        
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00
June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.
GLD – June Gold:  Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.
SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.
Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.    
Apple: Support is now at 575.  Next upside target is 660.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Guesstimates on April 19, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1367-1383. It looks like the overnight high at 1390 ended the rally from 1352.50. If the market starts spending time below 1370 I will conclude that the 1352.50 low will be broken and that the ES is headed for 1320-1330. In any case I still think this is a bull market and that the ES will move well above 1419.75 before it ends.

QQQ: Next upside target is 70.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

June Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.

Apple: Resistance is at 650 and support is now at 575.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Reaction is probably over

Here is a daily bar chart showing the past year's activity in the cash S&P 500. As far as I can tell the bull market which began from last October's low at 1077 is still going strong. As long as the market is above a rising 200 day moving average I think the bullish case deserves the benefit of the doubt.

The drop from the March 27 top just about matched the size of the December break (blue dash rectangles). It stopped on the rising blue dash trend line I have drawn. The low thus far was not far below a rising 50 day moving average and not far below support associated with the May 2011 top (upper green dash horizontal line).

All in all this is a bullish configuration in a bull market. I think it is likely that last week's low near 1357 will hold and that the S&P 500 will soon move above its March 2012 top. Even if I am wrong about this the worst I see on the downside would be a slight break of the March 6 low near 1344 (lower dash green line).

Some of you are wondering about my current views on Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house. I plan to do a separate post on the subject soon. Right now I think that if a domed house really did start from the October 2011 low then point 21 was the late March top. One could argue that the late March top was in fact point 23, the high of the domed house but my timing estimates based on Lindsay's methods fit better with the hypothesis that point 23 still is ahead of us.

Guesstimates on April 18, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1376-1392. I think that last week's1352.50 low will hold but a drop below 1370 would change my mind. Meantime I will stick with my view that a move to new bull market highs is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 70.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.

Apple: Resistance is at 650 and support is now at 575.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Guesstimates on April 17, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1366-1381. I still think that last week's1352.50 low will hold but a weak close today would change my mind. Meantime I will stick with my view that a move to new bull market highs is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 70.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Support is at 590.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support is now at 575.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Guesstimates on April 16, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1367-1380. I still think that last week's1352.50 low will hold but a weak close today would change my mind. Meantime I will stick with my view that a move to new bull market highs is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 70.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support at 635 has been broken but I think the 615 level will hold.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support at 610.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Guesstimates on April 13, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1373-1383. Yesterday's strong rally coming immediately on the heels of Tuesday's big drop means that 1352.50 ended the corrective swing down from 1419.75. A move to new highs is now underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 70.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support at 635 has been broken but I think the 615 level will hold.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support at 610.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Guesstimates on April 12, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1357-1371. The low of the drop from the 1419.75 high should develop somewhere in the 1330-1350 range. Once this bull market reaction is completed a move to new highs will begin.

QQQ: Support is at 65.25 and this reaction is likely to end near there.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support at 635 has been broken but I think the 615 level will hold.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support at 610.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Guesstimates on April 11, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1356-1371. At yesterday's low the stock market was extremely oversold and the overnight rally indicates that a more balanced condition is emerging. The low of the drop from the 1419.75 high should be somewhere in the 1330-1350 range. Once this bull market reaction is completed a move to new highs will begin.

QQQ: Support is now at 65.25 and this reaction is likely to end near there.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range but I think support at 1.95% will hold. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. As long as the yen doesn't spend more than a day or two below that level I will stick with my view that it is headed up to 90.00

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support at 635 has been broken but I think the 615 level will hold.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support at 610.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

update

Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500 covering the past year's price action.

I think the drop from the April 2 top at 1422 is a reaction within an ongoing bull market. To estimate how far it might carry I like to look at the size of previous reactions within the trend and use these as my measuring stick.

Since the October 4 low at 1075 there have been two obvious breaks. The first one ended on November 25 and carried the S&P down 134 points. A drop of that size from 1422 would put the S&P at 1288 (large blue dash rectangles). The second break occurred in December of 2011 and carried the S&P down 64 points. A drop that size from 1422 would carry the S&P to 1358 (smaller blue dash rectangles).

The green up trend line I have drawn right now stands near 1355. The last low of significance was the March 6 low at 1340.

I think the best guess now is that the S&P will be supported somewhere in the 1340-58 zone (purple blue oval). The subsequent rally should carry the market above 1422.

If support in the zone delineated by the purple oval should fail then I think the next step down will be to support determined by last years 134 point break in November. This is 1288 and coincides with the October 2011 top at 1292 which should be support in its own right.

Guesstimates on April 10, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1370-1382. The 1375 level is strong support and I think the ES is about to rally to 1400 and higher. Looking a bit further ahead the market is likely to reach the May 2008 to at 1442 during the next few weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance now is at 650 and support at 610.

Monday, April 09, 2012

Guesstimates on April 9, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1370-1382. The 1375 level is strong support and I think the ES is about to rally to 1400 and higher. Looking a bit further ahead the market is likely to reach the May 2008 to at 1442 during the next few weeks.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 632. and support at 590.

Thursday, April 05, 2012

Guesstimates on April 5, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1380-1392. I think the drop from the March 27 top at 1419.75 is nearly over. The next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 632. and support at 590.

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Guesstimates on April 4, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1386-1401. The market will probably drop to 1385 or so. After that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like the Euro is rejecting the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 632. and support at 590.

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Guesstimates on April 3, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1400-1412. The market looks like it is bouncing off of resistance near its last high at 1419.75. This means that it will probably drop to 1390 or so before resuming its rally. After that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower. Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is at 632. and support at 590.

Monday, April 02, 2012

Guesstimates on April 2, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1400-1412. I think the drop from 1419 is over and that the next development will be a rally to the May 2008 top at 1442.

QQQ: Next upside target is 69.10. Support is now at 63.50.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has broken out to the upside from a narrow, multi-month trading range and has taken a peek above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this is a genuine breakout. It is telling us that the US economic growth is about to accelerate and this is a very bullish longer term development for the stock market. The 10 year yield has started a move to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still straddling resistance at 1.3300. If it moves decisively above that level I think it will continue up to 1.3570 but right now the market has shown no preference for either side of that resistance level. In either case I think the Euro will soon head much lower. Dollar-Yen: Support is at 81.00. I think the market is headed for 85.00 and eventually will move to 90.00. This is a good sign for worldwide equity markets because it means that the Japanese central bank is trying to raise the growth rate of Japanese nominal national income and will probably succeed.

May Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – June Gold: Gold will now probably drop to 1585. A move to 2100 is underway.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. The 31.50 level is now support.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750. Next upside resistance above the market is at 662. Support is at 635.

Apple: Resistance is now at 632. and support at 590.